بانكو دى نابولي - الفوركس المصنع

دي نابولي، مؤشر القوة النسبية، إما 5 دقيقة نظام انضم مارس 2007 الحالة: عضو 7،014 المشاركات مرحبا أنا تفضل التداول قمم منخفضة وأدنى مستوياته من 5 دقائق الرسوم البيانية. هذا هو فهم الكابوس لرمز. وهناك بديل جيد المظهر باستخدام بعض الأفكار من موضوع معين (الكاتب لا يحب مناطق العد حتى مرضى إبقاء اسمه بها) يبدو أن جديرة بالاهتمام. الأفكار هي موضع تقدير كبير على الرغم من. بالطبع هنا ك 5 دقائق النظام ولكن سوف تعمل على أي إطار زمني مع تغييرات واضحة على توقف الخ هل سيكون هناك أي شخص مهتم في ترميز ما يلي: بويس 8،3،3 عبرت ديناستولي ستوكاستيك يصل 13 مؤشر القوة النسبية فوق 45 34 إما يجب أن تكون الشمعة قد أغلقت أعلاه أو أن تكون فوق، بيع إما 8،3،3 دينابولي ستوكاستيك عبر 13 مؤشر القوة النسبية دون 55 34 شمعة إما يجب أن تكون مغلقة أدناه، أو أن تكون أدناه، صافرة إما وأجراس: إذا كان ما يلي يمكن أن تكون متغيرة المدخلات للسماح لصقل في المستقبل، ومؤشر القوة النسبية ومستويات (في الوقت الحاضر 13 و 4555). و إما هو 34 من الإغلاق. متغير وقف معرف مثل توقف أن يتحرك صعود يقول كل 10 نقطة على سبيل المثال توقف من يقول 15 أن يتحرك إلى 5 مرة واحدة 10 نقطة في الربح، إلى 5 مرة واحدة 20 حتى الخ وما إلى ذلك وبالتالي فإن مستوى الخطوة في المحطة يجب أن يكون متغير أيضا. مستوى ربح متغير دخل مرة واحدة تحرك السعر 2 نقطة فوق إغلاق (لا الفتيل) من الشمعة التي تثير الدخول تأكيد التجارة اليدوي أو الخيار ليكون كإشارة فقط تنبيه مسموع مرة واحدة في 3 بنود (الصليب ستوش، رسي و إما) قد تم الوفاء بها (ولكن قبل أن يتحرك السعر 2 نقطة فوق أدناه للدخول) إذا كان هناك أي إيدياسوجستيونس أخرى معرف الحب لسماع لهم. آمل أن يكون هذا ليس كثيرا لطلب. شكرا مقدما على أي المبرمجين هناك. أحد الأمور التي قد تكون مشكلة في الترميز هو الحاجة إلى وضع المؤشرات على خطوط مختلفة، على سبيل المثال التجارة في أقصى اليسار. ستوش و رسي إشارة التجارة 4 الحانات قبل شمعة المشار إليها. لها فوق 34 إما حتى لا التجارة. يرتفع مؤشر القوة النسبية ويتجه لأسفل على الشريط المشار إليه، وقد بقيت ستوش متجهة إلى أسفل ولكن لا تزال هناك تجارة. فقط على الشريط التالي أن الشمعة تغلق تحت إما. صورة مرفقة (اضغط للتكبير) العدد الأخير مع الأتمتة هو إذا كنت تتداول بنجاح على أساس تقديري، كما كنت. إلا أن منحنى رأس المال السليم قد يبدو (وعلى افتراض أنه من الناحية الواقعية)، فإنه من المستحيل تقريبا العثور على واحد دون فترات سحب أطول بكثير مما كنت تستخدم ل. حظا سعيدا مع هذا المشروع مرحبا جتراد شخصيا استخدام سوء التنبيه والتجارة يدويا. تشيرس موني تدفق طريقة التداول جنبا إلى جنب مع مقتطف إدارة المخاطر: ترامب حول إعلان الحرب العملة إد. ملاحظة: جيم ريكاردز أحدث نيويورك تايمز أفضل بائع، الطريق إلى الخراب: خطة النخب العالمية السرية للأزمة المالية المقبلة (المطالبة نسخة مجانية هنا) تتجاوز السياسة والإعلام لإعدادك للأزمة المقبلة في الجليد تسعة قفل . قبل ست سنوات في كتابي الأول، حرب العملات. كتبت، لا يوجد شيء اليوم الذي يوحي بأن حرب العملات ستنتهي في أي وقت قريب. واليوم، تبدو تلك الكلمات صحيحة كما كانت دائما. حرب العملة هي معركة، ولكنها اقتصادية في المقام الأول. عن سياستها الاقتصادية. والفكرة الأساسية هي أن البلدان تريد أن تقلل من عملتها. الآن، يقولون إنهم يريدون ترشيد عملتهم لتعزيز الصادرات. ربما يجعل بوينغ أكثر قدرة على المنافسة دوليا مع إيرباص. لكن السبب الحقيقي، وهو السبب الذي قلنا عنه، هو أن البلدان تريد فعلا استيراد التضخم. خذ الولايات المتحدة على سبيل المثال. لدينا عجز تجاري، وليس فائضا. إذا كان الدولار أرخص قد يجعل صادراتنا أكثر جاذبية قليلا. وسوف يؤدي ذلك إلى زيادة أسعار السلع التي نشتريها سواء كانت السلعة المصنعة والمنسوجات والالكترونيات وغيرها، وأن التضخم يغذي بعد ذلك سلسلة التوريد في الولايات المتحدة. لذلك، فإن حروب العملات هي في الواقع وسيلة لخلق سهولة نقدية واستيراد التضخم. كم عدد المرات التي سمعت مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحادي يقولون انهم يريدون 2 التضخم أنها تحليلها مرارا وتكرارا. انهم يائسة للوصول الى هناك. والمشكلة هي أنه عندما يحاول بلد ما تقوية عملته، يقوم بلد آخر بتكليف عملته، وهكذا يتسبب في سباق إلى القاع. حرب العملات هي مثل الحروب الحقيقية في أكثر من طريقة واحدة. ويمكن أن تستمر لفترة أطول مما يتوقعه المحاربون، وتنتج انتصارات وخسائر غير متوقعة. الحروب الحقيقية لا تنطوي على جميع القتال، في كل وقت. هناك فترات هادئة، تتخللها المعارك الكبرى، تليها فترات هادئة جديدة مع جيوش الراحة وإعادة تجميع. هناك نقاط تحول حاسمة حيث يتم تعيين اتجاه اتجاه طويل الأجل لعكس. وأصبحت الفائزين اليوم (العملات القوية) خاسرة (العملات الضعيفة)، خلافا لمعظم التوقعات وتوقعات وول ستريت. اليوم يمكن أن نكون في واحدة من تلك النقاط تحول، والتي تستكشف جيدا في لحظة. ولكن أولا، دعونا نرى كيف وصلنا هنا. حروب العملات في أوائل 1930s من المحتمل أن تكون مفيدة لما يمكن أن نواجهه اليوم. وبعد ذلك بوقت قصير، خفضت الولايات المتحدة قيمة الدولار في عام 1933. ثم فرنسا، التي خفضت قيمة الفرنك في العشرينات، وخفضت قيمة المملكة المتحدة مرة أخرى في عام 1936. كان لديك فترة من تخفيضات العملة المتعاقبة وما يسمى " وتسمى سياسات متسول الجار الخاص بك. وكانت النتيجة بالطبع واحدة من أسوأ الكسور في تاريخ العالم. وكان هناك ارتفاع كبير في معدلات البطالة وسحق الإنتاج الصناعي الذي أدى إلى فترة طويلة من الضعف الشديد إلى النمو السلبي. لم يتم حل هذه الحرب العملة حتى الحرب العالمية الثانية وبعد ذلك، وأخيرا، في مؤتمر بريتون وودز. عندما وضع العالم على معيار نقدي جديد. اندلعت حرب العملات التالية من عام 1967 إلى عام 1987. وكان الحدث الرئيسي في منتصف هذه الحرب نيكسون التي أخذت الولايات المتحدة وفي نهاية المطاف العالم، قبالة المعيار الذهبي في 15 أغسطس 1971. فعل ذلك لخلق فرص العمل وتشجيع الصادرات للمساعدة الاقتصاد الأمريكي. ما حدث فعلا بدلا من ذلك كان لدينا ثلاثة ركود إلى الوراء، في 1974 و 1979 و 1980. تحطمت سوق الأسهم لدينا في عام 1974. ارتفعت البطالة، وتضخم التضخم خارج نطاق السيطرة بين عامي 1977 و 1981 (التضخم في الولايات المتحدة في تلك الفترة خمس سنوات كان 50) وانخفضت قيمة الدولار إلى النصف. الدرس الحقيقي لحروب العملة هو أنها لا تنتج النتائج التي تتوقعها والتي هي زيادة الصادرات والوظائف وبعض النمو. وما ينتجونه عموما هو الانكماش الشديد، والتضخم الشديد، والركود، والاكتئاب، والكوارث الاقتصادية. files. admin. agorafinancial. c. نغ-635x120.jpg ads. agorafinancialwwwd. ampcb6530f495fd ولكن ثيري جدا، جذابة جدا للسياسيين لأنها يمكن أن يقف القول، مهلا، من الجيد أن يكون الدولار رخيصة لأننا تعزيز فرص العمل. ولكن الواقع هو أنه لا يعزز فرص العمل. انها تعزز فقط التضخم. كنت في الواقع أفضل حالا مع عملة قوية لأن ذلك يجذب رأس المال من الخارج. ويريد الناس الاستثمار في منطقة العملة القوية، وتلك الاستثمارات وتدفقات رأس المال الداخلة التي تخلق الوظائف فعلا. كالمعتاد، والسياسيين والمصرفيين المركزيين لديها خطأ تماما. ولكنهم لا يستمعون لي أو بالضرورة قراءة النشرات الإخبارية الخاصة بي. وكانت الفترة ما بين 1985 و 2010 هي عصر ما نسميه الدولار الملك أو سياسة الدولار قوية. لقد كانت فترة نمو جيد جدا، واستقرار جيد جدا في الأسعار، وأداء اقتصادي جيد في جميع أنحاء العالم. ووافقت الولايات المتحدة على الحفاظ على القوة الشرائية للدولار ويمكن لشركائنا التجاريين أن يربطوا الدولار أو يخططون اقتصاداتهم حول بعض ربط الدولار. وهذا أعطانا نظاما مستقرا عموما. وقد عملت حتى عام 2010 عندما مزقت الولايات المتحدة الصفقة وأعلنت في الأساس حرب عملة أخرى لتعزيز الصادرات الأمريكية. وقد قام الرئيس أوباما بذلك في خطاب حالة الاتحاد في كانون الثاني / يناير 2010. وما زالت حروب العملات مستمرة منذ ذلك الحين، مع كثافة متباينة. ولكن مع انتخاب دونالد ترامب، يبدو أنها دخلت لدخول معركة كبرى جديدة. واليوم، جلبت حروب العملة الولايات المتحدة إلى أعتاب حرب تجارية. واشتكى الرئيس ترامب والعديد من كبار مستشاريه في الأيام الأخيرة من أن الصين ليست فقط مناورة العملة، بل هي اليابان وألمانيا. يبدو أن الولايات المتحدة تعبت من مرحلة الدولار الملك الجديد التي كانت في الآونة الأخيرة، وعلى استعداد لاتخاذ إجراءات لتخفيض الدولار. ولكن كيف يمكن للإدارة فعل ذلك فعليا لن يخفض مجلس الاحتياطي الفدرالي أسعار الفائدة لأنه في دورة تشديد. ومن المحتمل أن يرفع مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي أسعار الفائدة في مارس / آذار وربما في وقت لاحق من هذا العام. وهذا يجعل الدولار أقوى. وتحاول الصين دعم اليوان ولكنها تنفد من احتياطيات الدولارات للقيام بذلك وستضطر الى خفض قيمتها قبل ان تنهار. قد ترغب ألمانيا في زيادة قوة اليورو لمحاربة التضخم، ولكن القرار ليس في أيديها تماما إلى البنك المركزي الأوروبي، والبنك المركزي الأوروبي لا يزال يشارك في بورصة قطر في الوقت الراهن. ولا يمكن لليابان أن تتحمل الين أقوى، لأن لديها أعلى نسبة من الدين إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لأي اقتصاد رئيسي، وهي في حاجة ماسة للحصول على التضخم. وتحتاج اليابان إلى التضخم لتخفيض القيمة الحقيقية لذلك الدين. إذا لم تتمكن الصين وألمانيا واليابان من إعطاء ترامب ما يريده في أسواق الصرف الأجنبي، فما هي الخيارات المتاحة للولايات المتحدة. الخيار الرئيسي هو التعريفات الجمركية، بالضبط ما فعله ريتشارد نيكسون في 15 أغسطس 1971. قد تتذكر هذا التاريخ باليوم أنهى نيكسون قابلية تحويل الدولار للذهب. لكنه فرض أيضا تعريفة شاملة على جميع السلع المستوردة كجزء من خطته الاقتصادية الجديدة. نيكسون الجمع بين حروب العملة والحروب التجارية في سياسة واحدة من خلال اكتناز الذهب وفرض التعريفات الجمركية. تاريخيا، تؤدي حروب العملة إلى حروب تجارية، وفي نهاية المطاف إلى شكل من أشكال الانهيار النظامي. ويبدو أن هذا يحدث مرة أخرى. سوء تحليل كل جانب من هذه العملة في الأسابيع المقبلة. إد. ملاحظة: القراء الذين يشتركون في الحصول على ريكونينغ اليومية عن طريق البريد الإلكتروني والحصول على تعليق حصرية، يميل إلى الأمام أرسلت مباشرة إلى صناديق البريد الخاصة بهم كل يوم. ما تقرأه هنا على موقعنا هو مجرد شريحة من التوقعات المستقلة نصدر يوميا. ببساطة انقر هنا لتلقي اليومية ريكونينغ. فإنه يكلفك شيئا وعود ليكون أكثر غنية بالمعلومات ومسلية 15 دقيقة من يومك. ads. agorafinancialwwwd. ampcbdaeacb238c مهم جدا كيبكالمفكس - يرجى قراءة بعناية. يشير منحنى العائد الحاد إلى المزيد من النمو والتضخم، ومنحنى العائد الذي يزداد حدة يشير إلى توقع حدوث نمو في النمو. هناك شرائح مختلفة من منحنى العائد يمكن أن تخبرنا ما جحافل المشاركين في السوق يعتقدون أن يحدث على مدى سنوات عديدة. وبعد االنتخابات، شهدت األسعار أقصر منحنى العائد، مما يشير إلى أن المستثمرين يشهدون مزيدا من النمو والتضخم عما كان عليه في السابق على المدى القريب. ومع ذلك، فإن نهاية أطول من منحنى العائد قد بالارض، مشيرا إلى أن المستثمرين يرى أن بعض النمو الحالي هو اقترضت من المستقبل. وقد يصبح التحفيز المالي الآن عائقا ماليا في وقت لاحق، حيث أن النمو الاقتصادي المحتمل على المدى الطويل يقيده نمو القوة العاملة ومكاسب الإنتاجية. في الاقتصاد، كما هو الحال مع أشياء كثيرة في الحياة، ثيريس نظرة طويلة المدى، و ثيريس ما يحدث في المدى القريب. وقد يحاول المتنبؤون الفرديون التنبؤ بنمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العام أو العامين المقبلين، وأحيانا هذا الحق، وأحيانا لا يحدث ذلك. ولكن هناك تقديرات قائمة على السوق تجمع وجهات نظر جحافل المستثمرين، والتي يتم تضمينها في أسعار السوق. يمكننا أن نرى هذا في عرض بسيط في أسعار الأسهم، والتي هي في كثير من الأحيان انعكاس لأرباح الشركة في المستقبل. ولكن سوق السندات يقدم لمحة عن ما يعتقده المستثمرون سيحدث للاقتصاد بأكمله في المستقبل، وفي بعض الحالات، بعيدا في المستقبل البعيد. وما يقوله منحنى العائد هو أنه بعد الانتخابات، يرى المستثمرون عثرة للنمو على المدى القريب، نظرا للسياسات والتحفيز الصديقة للنمو، ولكن هذه الآثار تتلاشى على المدى الطويل. معدلات النمو الاقتصادي في المدى البعيد هي خارجة عن أي سيطرة الحكومة في كثير من الحالات، العديد من القوى الاقتصادية هي ببساطة خارجة عن سيطرة نية شركة واحدة لزيادة أرباحها أو السياسيين الرغبة في تمرير القوانين الصديقة للنمو. ويتأثر النمو الطويل الأجل للاقتصاد باثنين من العوامل الأساسية: كم من الناس يعملون (وعدد الساعات التي يعملون)، وكم تنتج كل ساعة. وبعبارة أخرى، فإن معدل النمو على المدى الطويل للاقتصاد هو ببساطة نمو القوة العاملة بالإضافة إلى مكاسب الإنتاجية. وعلى المدى القصير، ربما يمكن للسياسات الاقتصادية التي تتخذها الحكومات أن تؤثر على معدل نمو الاقتصاد، مثل جعل العمل أكثر جدوى (وبالتالي جذب المزيد من الناس إلى القوة العاملة)، أو التأثير على الحوافز التي تدفع الشركات إلى الاستثمار في الإنتاجية - وتعزيز التكنولوجيات أو المعدات. ما نراه في هذه الحالة مع انتخاب إدارة ترامب هو أن الأسواق تشهد ارتفاعا في النمو على المدى القصير. فحص كيف منحنى العائد كتيبريديتسكوت الظروف الاقتصادية أولا، على الرغم من قبل أن ندخل في التفاصيل، تغطي جيدا بعض الأساس الأساسي للإشارات منحنى العائد يوفر. إن انحدار أو منحنى منحنى العائد هو مؤشر على مدى سرعة نمو الاقتصاد، ومدى التضخم الذي قد ينتج عنه، مما يتطلب معدلات أعلى على المدى القصير في المستقبل. وكلما زاد منحنى العائد، كلما توقع المزيد من المستثمرين ارتفاع معدلات التضخم وأسعار الفائدة في المستقبل، وكلما طلبوا المزيد من العائد على عقد سندات أطول أجلا. فعندما يتسطح منحنى العائد (أو حتى العوائد، حيث تكون المعدلات قصيرة الأجل أعلى من المعدلات طويلة الأجل)، يتوقع المستثمرون تباطؤ الاقتصاد. كما أن برامج شراء السندات لدى البنوك المركزية تمارس أيضا نفوذا أيضا. دعونا نلقي نظرة على العلاقة بين منحنى العائد والدورة الاقتصادية، حيث نستخدم الفرق بين عائد الخزانة لمدة 10 سنوات مطروحا منه عائد الخزانة لمدة عامين كمقياس للانحدار القصير الأجل لمنحنى العائد. ولما كان هذا المؤشر مؤشرا رائدا، فإن هذا التقدم يقود بشكل جيد إلى تسعة أرباع ويقارنه بالنمو الاقتصادي الفعلي، ويقاس الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي. كما رأينا في الرسم البياني القريب، هناك علاقة بين الاثنين: staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 1927541928.png نظرة على المدى القريب مقابل المدى الطويل بعد أن ثبت أن هناك بعض العلاقة بين المتغيرين، يتيح الآن مقارنة مقياس الانحدار في منحنى العائد على المدى القصير والمتوسط ​​(العائد الخزري لعشر سنوات ناقص العائد من الخزينة لمدة عامين) وعلى المدى الأطول (عائد الخزانة لمدة 30 عاما مطروحا منه عائد الخزانة لمدة 10 سنوات). لاحظ القفزة الكبيرة في حادة من السابق بعد الانتخابات، عندما يتوقع المستثمرون المزيد من النمو والتضخم مع الإدارة الجديدة. ولكن الشيء الغريب حدث مع الجزء الأطول أجلا من منحنى العائد: أنه بالارض، مع توقع المستثمرين نمو أقل قليلا والتضخم. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 2445336354.png ما يعطي حسنا، لا يمكن لأي سياسي زيادة معدل الخصوبة، وغياب أي تغييرات في سياسة الهجرة، ومن المتوقع أن يتباطأ نمو القوى العاملة. رأينا أيضا العديد من المكاسب من التكنولوجيات الجديدة أدرجت بالفعل في الممارسات التجارية، على الرغم من أننا لا نعرف ما هو الشيء القادم الجديد الكبير سيكون في المستقبل. على هذا النحو، فإن التفكير العام للاقتصاديين هو أن نمو الوجه بشكل جيد التي لا يمكن أن تتغير كثيرا مع مرور الوقت، كما هو مبين في الرسم البياني القريبة مما يدل على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي المحتمل الحقيقي، توقعات بعيدة في المستقبل. يتفق المستثمرون، كما هو مبين في التسطيح النسبي للجزء الأطول من منحنى العائد. وسيحتاج أي حافز مالي الآن في نهاية المطاف إلى دفعه من خلال زيادة الإيرادات الضريبية أو تخفيض الإنفاق في وقت لاحق، لذلك ما لم يتحسن النمو بشكل كبير، يمكن أن يتحول التحفيز المالي الآن إلى سحب مالي في وقت لاحق. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 0273450568.png ستلاحظ أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي المحتمل يرتفع في أقل قليلا من 2. ونظرا إلى أن القوى العاملة من المتوقع أن تنمو بنسبة 0.5 سنويا من الآن وحتى عام 2024، وفقا لمكتب إحصاءات العمل، ومن المتوقع أن تكون مكاسب الإنتاجية حوالي 1 أو نحو ذلك، وفقا للبنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في سان فرانسيسكو، وربما هذا معدل النمو على المدى الطويل هو حول ما يمكننا توقعه واقعيا. ومنحنى العائد، اتضح، يعكس الحكمة الجماعية للملايين من المستثمرين. وبالنظر إلى العلاقة القوية التي كان لها في التنبؤ بالطفرات الاقتصادية والكساد في السنوات الماضية، ربما نحترم إشاراتها. ديسكلوسوريس الاستثمار ينطوي على المخاطر، بما في ذلك الخسارة المحتملة للأصل، ويجب على المستثمرين النظر بعناية أهدافهم الاستثمارية الخاصة وعدم الاعتماد أبدا على أي رسم بياني واحد، الرسم البياني أو قطعة التسويق لاتخاذ القرارات. المعلومات الواردة في هذه القطعة مخصصة للمعلومات فقط، وليست توصية لشراء أو بيع أي أوراق مالية، ولا ينبغي اعتبارها نصيحة استثمارية. يرجى الاتصال بالمستشار المالي الخاص بك مع أسئلة حول الاحتياجات الخاصة بك والظروف المحددة. يتم الحصول على المعلومات والآراء الواردة هنا من مصادر يعتقد أنها موثوقة، ولكن لا يمكن ضمان دقتها واكتمالها. جميع البيانات مدفوعة من المعلومات المتاحة للجمهور ولم يتم التحقق منها بشكل مستقل من قبل شركة يونايتد كابيتال. الآراء المعرب عنها حالية حتى تاريخ هذا المنشور وهي عرضة للتغيير، وهي تعكس آراء المؤلف وليس بالضرورة رأس المال المتحد. بعض العبارات الواردة في البيانات التطلعية تتضمن، على سبيل المثال لا الحصر، تنبؤات أو مؤشرات للأحداث أو الاتجاهات أو الخطط أو الأهداف المستقبلية. وينبغي عدم الاعتماد على هذه البيانات دون مبرر، لأنها، بحكم طبيعتها، تخضع لمخاطر وشكوك معروفة وغير معروفة. المؤشرات غير المدارة، لا تأخذ بعين الاعتبار تأثير تكاليف المعاملات أو الرسوم، لا تمثل حساب فعلي ولا يمكن استثمارها مباشرة. ويستتبع الاستثمار الدولي اعتبارات خاصة للمخاطر، بما في ذلك تقلبات أسعار العملات، وانخفاض السيولة، والمخاطر الاقتصادية والسياسية، ومنهجيات محاسبية مختلفة. 2016 المتحدة كابيتال المالية المستشارين، ليك. جميع الحقوق محفوظة ونيتدكب الإفصاح: إيوي ليس لديها مواقف في أي أسهم المذكورة، ولا توجد خطط لبدء أي مناصب في غضون 72 ساعة القادمة. كتبت هذه المقالة بنفسي، وتعبر عن آرائي الخاصة. أنا لا أتلقى تعويضا عن ذلك. ليس لدي أي علاقة تجارية مع أي شركة تم ذكر أسهمها في هذه المقالة. عضو تجاري انضم ديسمبر 2014 1،600 المشاركات رئيس إلى أقبية النبيذ - لا تجعل ضوء ذلك. أنا فقط حصلت على هذا البريد الإلكتروني من منظمة مهنية للغاية في الأعمال المالية حتى كلماته هي أكثر من قوية وواضحة. ونحن جميعا قادرون على الأمل والصلاة من أجل مستقبلنا. ومن الواضح أن السيطرة ليست في أيدينا في الوقت الراهن. عزيزي المشتركين، أحدث تقرير عطلة نهاية الأسبوع العالمي توقعات السوق، العدد رقم. 2613 اعتبارا من الجمعة 3 فبراير 2017 متاح الآن للمشتركين في تيشنيكالينديكاتوريندكس للوصول إلى هذا التقرير، ما عليك سوى تسجيل الدخول والنقر على زر عطلة نهاية الأسبوع الدولي. وتواصل أسواق الأسهم الدولية العمل على صعود الأنماط، مع اقتراب هبوط واسع النطاق على مستوى العالم. وهذا قد يعجل بحرب عالمية. مؤشر الأسهم TA100 الإسرائيلي هو استكمال رأس أمبير الكتفين العلوي الذي يمكن أن يؤدي إلى انخفاض قوي. إن الحرب القادمة يمكن أن تشمل إسرائيل. كما يحذر مؤشر اليورو ستوكس 50 من أعلى أهمية. هناك غضب متكرر بين شعوب العالم، وحرب الأفكار والقيم هي في صميم ذلك. الخداع، آمال متقطعة، توقعات غير واقعية، المعتقدات الكاذبة، قيم ثنائية التفرع. إن دول العالم تتحرك نحو حكومة عالمية واحدة، ضد إرادة القوميين الذين يسعون إلى الحفاظ على سيادة أصولهم، والحفاظ على ثقافاتهم وقيمهم الفريدة. هاتان القوى المتعارضة تتزايد في شدة. الحرب تأتي إلى العالم. وستؤثر هذه الأحداث على الاقتصادات والأسواق العالمية. الرسوم البيانية التي نعرضها في تقرير نهاية الأسبوع هذا تحذر من العواقب القادمة. عضو تجاري انضم إلى ديسمبر 2014 1،600 مشاركات تطور هام جدا جدا جدا منذ أن بدأت الصين لتكرار المؤسسات المالية الغربية اعتبارا من عام 2013، بدأت المزيد والمزيد من الدول تتجه نحو الشرق، وبعيدا عن هيمنة الدولار. واحدة من أهم هذه البنى التحتية الجديدة هي منصات سيبس الصينية التي تعمل لليوان بنفس الطريقة سويفت يفعل بالنسبة للدولار. ولكن على عكس الطريقة التي تفرضها "سويفت" على المقايضات حينما يتعين على الدول استخدام الدولار كوسيط لأنه لا يزال يسود كعملة احتياطي فريدة في العالم، فإن سيبس يسمح برسوم معاملات أقل بكثير وملاءمة لتجاوز العملة الأمريكية من خلال العملة المباشرة الثنائية مستوطنة. 4.bp. blogspot - I2YBhlJp. china2Bus. jpg سيرتبط بنك هيروشيما و 13 مصرفا يابانيا إقليميا بشبكة الدفع بين البنوك التي تمكن الأسلاك المباشرة من الصين إلى البر الرئيسي للصين - وهي خطوة ستخفض رسوم المعاملات وتعزز الراحة للعملاء. والانضمام إلى نظام المدفوعات الدولية الصين خفض الرسوم وأيام المعالجة. بنك جوروكو وبنك جويو هي أيضا من بين البنوك اليابانية الاستفادة من النظام الذي قدمه بنك الشعب الصيني. وسوف يتم توصيلها واحدا تلو الآخر بعد نهاية عطلة رأس السنة الصينية الجديدة عن طريق بنك طوكيو ميتسوبيشي يو اف جى، والتي ترتبط بالنظام العام الماضي. وفى السابق، كان يتعين معالجة المدفوعات الى البر الرئيسى للصين من خلال بنوك المقاصة مثل البنوك فى هونج كونج. سيبس يمكن خفض التكاليف بعدة دولارات (10 يوان يساوي 1.45) لكل معاملة. يمكن إتمام الدفعات في نفس اليوم إذا تم استيفاء شروط معينة. آسيا. نيكيكي مع استمرار العالم في رفض الدولار والنموذج المالي القديم للعملة الاحتياطية الفريدة، فإن المزيد من البلدان تشهد فوائد التعامل في بيئة ثنائية. وبمجرد أن تقرر هذه الدول أن تتبع هذا النموذج الاقتصادي الجديد الذي يخرج من بكين، وأن تخلق الكتلة الحرجة اللازمة لتجاوز الدولار تماما، فإن العملة الاحتياطية سوف تتلاشى ببساطة عن طريق الموافقة الفعلية، وتغير القوة على الغرب وهي المؤسسات التي تدير النظام المالي العالمي لعقود. تعليقات من بنجامينيس: هذا هو كل شيء عن إزالة الدولار الأمريكي من كونه العملة الاحتياطية في العالم. يرجى الاطلاع أدناه - حقوق السحب الخاصة والصين يوان رسميا في سلة صندوق النقد الدولي من العملات الاحتياطية. وفي يوم السبت، أضيفت العملة الصينية إلى سلة حقوق السحب الخاصة لصندوق النقد الدولي، وانضمت إلى الدولار الأمريكي واليورو والين والجنيه الاسترليني. وقال بنك الشعب الصينى فى بيان له ان الاندماج فى حقوق السحب الخاصة يعد معلما بارزا فى تدويل الرنمينبى وهو تأكيد لنجاح التنمية الاقتصادية فى الصين ونتائج اصلاح وانفتاح القطاع المالى. وفقا لرويترز. وأعلن في العام الماضي أن العملة ستضاف إلى السلة، وهو أول إدراج منذ اليورو في عام 1999. ومع ذلك، قال معظم المحللين أن إدراج السبت هو أكثر من توكوتوت كوتوتيمبوليك من حول مقتطفات الآثار السوق ملحوظا، مثل ماكواري وكتبت الأبحاث لارى هو وجيري بنغ يوم الاثنين. وكرر فريق أبحاث مؤشر كتلة الجسم هذا الشعور، وكتب: كوت. كما كتبنا سابقا، فإن إدراجه هام بشكل رمزي لأنه يرفع العملة الصينية إلى الوضع العالمي الرئيسي. وهو أيضا اعتراف بالتنمية الاقتصادية الضخمة في الصين على مدى السنوات ال 35 الماضية. ولكننا نعتقد أن السلطات الصينية ستبقى ملتزمة بمرونة سعر الصرف وتحرير حساب رأس المال على المدى الطويل لأنها تأمل في تدويل الحزب الوطني الكوري، ولكن التقدم هو من المرجح أن تكون تدريجية وعرة، كما أضاف الفريق. الأخبار التي من شأنها أن تؤثر على يوروزون و يوروس سنيبيت: و 20 مليار الحكومة وضعت جانبا بدأت تبدو وكأنها البيرة الصغيرة. لا يمكن الخلط بين البنوك الرسمية التي يطلق عليها اسم "البنوك السيئة" مع البنوك السيئة الفانيليا التي جلبت النظام المالي العالمي إلى حافة الانهيار هذه الغضب في هذه الأيام، لا سيما في أوروبا التي تعاني من سوء القروض. وإذا كان البنك المركزي الأوروبي يحصل على طريقه، يمكن تعيين أعدادهم لتوسيع أبعد من ذلك. دعا نائب رئيس البنك المركزي الأوروبي فيتور كونستانسيو يوم الجمعة إلى إنشاء فئة جديدة كليا من البنوك السيئة المدعومة من الحكومة للمساعدة في شراء بعض القروض التي لم تسدد بعد من تريليون دولار والتي أثرت على بنوك منطقة اليورو منذ الأزمة المالية. هيريس كيف يمكن أن تعمل: الحكومات المثقلة بالديون بالفعل المعنية سوف تصدر حمولة من الديون الجديدة من أجل شراء ما يصل، ومن المفترض أن يكون بخصم كبير، وقيمة مليارات اليورو من القروض السامة المتقلبة على الميزانيات العمومية للبنوك. وبعبارة أخرى، ما لم تكن أحد البنوك الكبيرة التي تعمل لحساب بنك معسر، أو مستثمر يمتلك حصصا كبيرة من الأسهم أو السندات المصرفية البطيئة، فإن البنوك السيئة الممولة من دافعي الضرائب هي بطبيعتها فكرة سيئة، كما يقول الخبير الاقتصادي الأسباني خوان رامن رالو: والبنك السيئ هو آلية لإعادة توزيع ثروة بلد ما من دافعي الضرائب على المساهمين والمسؤولين التنفيذيين والعمال ودائني المؤسسات المالية. المنطق هو بسيط نزع السلاح: إذا كان الطرف الوحيد الذي يرغب في شراء الأصول السامة بالأسعار المعروضة من قبل البنوك هي الدولة، وهناك احتمالات أن الأصول لا تستحق ما تدفعه الدولة لهم. لا محالة، فإن فاتورة تمويل دافعي الضرائب ترتفع مع تكديس الخسائر، حتى يمكن أن ترتفع أبعد من ذلك، ووضع البنك سيئة في السؤال تحت سلالة لا تطاق. هذا بالضبط ما يحدث في إيطاليا حيث ظهرت في الأسبوع الماضي أن يونيكريديت، أكبر بنك في البلاد و G-سيب فقط (البنك العالمي مهم من الناحية النظامية)، وخفضت بشكل كبير استثمارها في واحدة من إيتاليين اثنين من البنوك سيئة عميقة، ، أتلانت I. لم يحدد يونيكريديت المبلغ المحدد للخفض ولكن وفقا لصحيفة ايل فاتتو كوتيديانو الإيطالية من المرجح أن تكون في مكان ما في منطقة 500 مليون، أو ما يقرب من 70 من 700 مليون البنك ساهم في الأموال. ويشكل هذا التخفيض جزءا من 12.2 مليار دولار من تنظيف كتب يونيكرديتس حيث يستعد البنك لرفع أو على الأقل محاولة رفع 13 مليار دولار في رأس المال الجديد في الأشهر المقبلة. ومن المؤكد أن الأخبار من الكتابة إلى رفع هاكلز من أتلانت هو المستثمرين الآخرين، والتي تشمل البنوك وصناديق الاستثمار وحفنة من المؤسسات العامة والخاصة. وقال إيتيسا سانباولو، ثاني أكبر بنك في إيتاليس، مع شركة يونيكريديت هو أكبر مستثمر في أتلانتس، إنه قد خفض قيمة حصته في الصندوق بمقدار 33. وفقا لرويترز، فإن مجموعة من حوالي نصف دزينة من البنوك الأخرى التي التي استثمرت في اتلانت عقدت سلسلة من الاجتماعات لمناقشة حجم عملياتهم من الممكن التخلص منها. اتلانتي هي أموال من مصادر خاصة إلى حد كبير، مع إيتالي أكبر البنوك اثنين السعال ما يقرب من 1.5 مليار بينهما. كما تم توفير 500 مليون أخرى من قبل البنوك الصغيرة، و 500 مليون أخرى تم التعهد بها من قبل مؤسسة كدب بريستي، وهي مؤسسة مالية مملوكة للدولة تقريبا. مع القليل من المساعدة من بعض المستثمرين الأجانب، تمكنت أتلانتي من مخلب معا نحو 4.8 مليار للمساعدة في حل إيتاليس 360 مشكلة الديون السيئة لم يكن أبدا أن يكون كافيا، لذلك تضاعفت الحكومة الإيطالية والمجتمع المصرفي على سياستهم الفاشلة، إنشاء بنك سيئ آخر، بعنوان "أتلانت إي" مبدع، مع الغرض الصريح من المساعدة في إزالة بعض الديون السامة التي وضعت على الميزانيات العمومية لثالث أكبر بنك في إيطاليا، مونتي دي باشي دي سيينا (مبس)، والتي هي الآن في طور ويجري إنقاذ. تلقت أتلانت إي مساهمات أصغر بكثير من البنوك الصحية إيتاليس وحصة أكبر بكثير من حكومة إيتاليس، عن طريق وسطاء ماليين مملوكين للدولة مثل سدب، ومكتب البريد الإيطالي، و سغا، بنك سيئ مملوك للدولة يرجع تاريخه إلى انهيار بنك بانكو دي نابولي، التي عرضت وضع 450 مليون. ولكن مثل سابقتها، كان أتلانت الثاني يعاني من نقص مزمن في التمويل. يحلم المبدعون بتحفيز خلق سوق حقيقية لتدهور الائتمان في إيطاليا، حيث إجراءات الإفلاس بطيئة ومرهقة سيئة، هو الآن في تاترس. تم تأسيس أتلانت الثاني في ربيع عام 2016. وبعد ستة أشهر فقط، قال كبير المصرفيين الإيطاليين جوزيبي غوزيتي، الذي ساعد في إنشاء البنوك السيئة، أنه كان بالفعل خارج التنفس. والآن ما تبقى الأموال القليلة أتلانت الأول و أتلانت الثاني قد تركت قيمة النزف حيث الأصول التي كانت تستخدم لشراء، على الدوام في الأسعار التي كانت مرتفعة جدا (في كثير من الأحيان أكثر من 40 سنتا على اليورو)، تستمر في التدهور. يذكر ان البنكين السيئين اللذين يزدادان سوءا هما تذكيران بالمهمة الكبيرة التى تواجه الحكومة الايطالية فى محاولتها تحقيق الاستقرار فى النظام المصرفى فى البلاد الذى يعانى من ديون سيئة تصل الى 356 مليار ثلث اجمالى يوروزونيس. ومن المؤكد أن قرار يونيكرديتس لخفض استثماراتها في أتلانتي من شأنه أن يثبط القطاع الخاص عن ضخ أموال جديدة في أتلانتي لإنقاذ البنوك الضعيفة. وهذا بدوره يضع مزيدا من الضغط على روما، مما يزيد الشكوك حول ما إذا كانت حزمة الإنقاذ الحالية التي تبلغ 20 مليار دولار تكفي لتحقيق الاستقرار في رابع أكبر نظام مصرفي في يوروزونيس. وقد خصصت الحكومة بالفعل حوالي ثلث تلك الأموال لإنقاذ مبس وحدها. وقال المحلل المصرفي في ميلانزو فينتشنزو لونغو من الوساطة إيغ لرويترز أن 20 مليار يورو وضعت الحكومة جانبا بدأت تبدو وكأنها البيرة الصغيرة. عندما أنقذت إسبانيا بنوكها قبل خمس سنوات، أنفقت 53.55 مليار (لا تشمل الضمانات الحكومية)، منها 2.69 مليار فقط تم استردادها. في ذلك الوقت كانت نسبة الدين العام إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في إسبانيا 85. وهذا بالمقارنة مع إيتاليس 135 من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي اليوم. ولا أحد يعرف كيف تستطيع حكومة العالم الرابعة الأكثر مديونية أن ترفع هذا النوع من الأموال اللازمة لتحقيق الاستقرار في النظام المالي للبلد دون دفع نفسه على حافة ديون الديون. في إشارة مشؤومة، ارتفعت عائدات السندات الحكومية الإيطالية، وانتشر العائد بين السندات الإيطالية والألمانية لمدة 10 سنوات يقترب من أعلى مستوياته في ثلاث سنوات. لكن الأسواق لا تزال تأمل في أن يقوم البنك المركزي الأوروبي بكل ما يلزم للتأكد من أن مشاكل البنوك الذاتية سوف تصبح قريبا عبء دافعي الضرائب من دون كيجونيس. وقالوا انه كان وارد، ولكن الآن ضرب أكبر بنك إيطالي. سنيبيت: كانت الأسواق العالمية تتدفق على طول الحق حتى ظهرت تصدع كبير في عام 2015. ويبدو أن هذا الشرخ الكبير في الاقتصاد العالمي لا يلاحظه أحد، ولكن الآثار خطيرة جدا إذا استمر الاتجاه. في الواقع، لم يكن لدي أي فكرة عن مدى أهمية هذا التطور حتى قارنت البيانات إلى ما حدث خلال التحطم المالي والاقتصادي في 2008-2009. ووفقا للمسح الجيولوجي الأمريكي أوسغس، وصلت بسرعة ارتفاع إنتاج الأسمنت العالمي ذروته من 4180 مليون طن في عام 2014، ثم انخفض فجأة في عام 2015: في حين أن قطرة من 80 مليون طن في عام 2015 ليست كمية كبيرة، بالمقارنة مع البيانات في 2009، وهو تغيير اتجاه كبير. دعني أشرح. قام البنك الدولي فقط بتنقيح أرقامه التي أظهرت أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي قد انخفض بمقدار 5.7 في عام 2015: عندما ظهر أول مرة مع أرقامهم، ذكر البنك الدولي أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي انخفض من 78.4 تريليون في عام 2014 إلى 73.9 تريليون في عام 2015. كما can see they revised each figure up by 200 billion, but the overall decrease in GDP was still 5.7. Regardless, the interesting thing to focus on is that during the U. S. and Global financial meltdown in 2009, the world GDP fell less in percentage terms at only 5.2. Now, if we look at the Global Annual Cement Production chart above, we will see (shown as a RED BAR) that global cement production increased by a stunning 7 in 2009 . Global cement production jumped from 2,850 million tons in 2008 to 3,050 million tons in 2009. This was mainly due to a large increase in Chinese cement production. As the chart also shows in the lower right hand side, Chinese cement production accounted for 57 of the worlds total in 2015. Furthermore, the decline in global cement production was mainly due to a 5 drop of Chinese cement production that year. The reason for the big drop in global GDP in 2015 and resulting decline in world cement production was due to the 47 collapse in the price of a barrel of oil. This had a serious impact on the global markets and still does. Even though the oil price has risen recently, it declined another 17 in 2016 compared to the previous year. I would imagine this should impact 2016 global GDP negatively as well. We will just have to wait and see what the figures turn out to be when the World Bank releases them in the next several months. So, has global cement production peaked Thats a good question. From the forecasts I have seen, analysts are projecting that global cement production will continue to increase to 4,370 million tons (4.4 billion tons) by 2020. It will be interesting to see if these forecasts pan out. However, the propping up of the world stock markets, corporations and governments with money printing and debt is most certainly getting out of hand. For example, As Wolf Richter stated in his recent article, Dow Companies Report Worst Revenues since 2010, Dow Rises to 20,000 (LOL) : This relentless and eager focus on Wall Street hocus-pocus explains in part why the DJIA has soared 73 over the five years to 20,000 even as aggregate revenues, despite the delirious acquisition binge, have been mired down in a sea of stagnation. Okay, now that we are discussing the U. S. Dow Jones Index, what on earth is going on with U. S. cement consumption Well, lets just say, U. S. cement consumption has likely PEAKED a decade ago : I decided to show U. S. cement consumption rather than just production, because the United States imports a significant amount of cement to meet its demand. So, focusing on U. S. cement demand provides us a clear picture that something is seriously wrong here. According to the USGS data, U. S. cement consumption peaked in 2005 at 128 million tons and literally fell off a cliff, by falling to a low of 71 million tons in 2010. This was a staggering 44 decline in U. S. cement consumption in five years. Actually the majority of the decline took place between 2006 and 2009. Thus, in these three years, U. S. cement demand fell by 43 . Even though U. S. cement consumption has increased to 93 million tons in 2015, this is still down 35 million tons from its high of 128 million tons in 2005. So, how did U. S. GDP or the Dow Jones Index continue to increase by leaps and bounds, if cement consumption is still 27 below its 2005 peak Yes, I would imagine some would say that the United States does not need to grow its cement consumption that much because its infrastructure has been mostly built out. Well, that may be partly true, but we have to go back all the way to 1997 (nearly 20 years) to equal the same amount of domestic cement consumption reported last year. I would imagine the huge surge of U. S. cement demand, ending in 2006, was due to the massive housing boom (including strip mall, commercial and warehouse construction) built on the Mortgage Backed Security Ponzi Scheme. For example, when the country consumed 127.6 million tons of cement in 2006, U. S. GDP was 13.8 trillion. However, with domestic cement consumption down 27 to 93 million tons in 2015 versus 2006, U. S. GDP surged to 18 trillion . Something just doesnt seem to add up does it. (GDP source: FRED data ) Well, just as Wolf Richter stated about the Dow Jones hocus-pocus, there seems to be a lot of HOT AIR propping up the entire U. S. financial economy. So, how long can President Trump along with the Fed and member banks continue to prop up the U. S. market that should have died years ago If we pay attention to what is taking place in the energy industry, we will find our clue. I will be putting out an article shortly on THE U. S. MAJOR OIL INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO BLEED TO DEATH . This should provide an insight on just how bad the situation is becoming in the most vital industry in the U. S. economy. Without oil, the U. S. and global economy GRINDS TO A HALT and fast. Lastly, several of my followers sent me a recent article titled, How I came to Realize I was Wrong About Peak Oil F. William Engdahl . In the article, Mr Engdahl states the following: The media said they were told it was because the price of a barrel of oil went way up (due to shortages). I knew that was a lie, and so did others, and radio stations began providing a service where folks could call in locations of gas stations with low prices and they would broadcast the address. Fortunately, the days when this nonsense can run our lives are in short supply themselves. People are wising up and refusing to buy into the lies. According to Engdahl, our planet manufactures oil in its core, and replenishes what is extracted by Big Oil. There is no shortage. There never was . I plan on writing a rebuttal to Mr. Engdahls stunning absence of logic, reason and science on this subject matter. However, I will not be doing this to debate him, rather it will be to provide more information to help answer questions by those who read the SRSrocco Report. Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report . Goldilocks Joins Team Trump -- Barrons Sat Feb 04 00:13:00 2017 By Randall W. Forsyth The first two weeks of the Trump presidency have been nothing if not eventful. An immigration ban, a Supreme Court nomination, testy phone calls to foreign leaders, an attempt to dismantle Dodd-Frank -- all in a weeks work. Plus feuding with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Its a wonder that the new administration had time to react to trivial matters, such as Irans launch of a ballistic missile in apparent violation of the landmark nuclear deal, Israels West Bank settlements, North Koreas nuclear threat, or the surge in violence in Ukraine. On the last score, the nations new United Nations ambassador, Nikki Haley, took a sterner tone toward Russia than her boss, blaming that country for the increase in fighting in Ukraine and vowing to keep in place U. S. sanctions for the 2014 annexation of SHYCrimea. As a candidate, Donald Trump suggested that he might lift the sanctions and recognize Vladimir Putins hostile takeover of the region. What has been clear is who has come out ahead in this episode. From his digs in Palm Beach, Fla. near the new Winter White House, Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners slyly observes that even though the U. S. stock market has been up smartly since the November election, the Moscow bourse has done nearly three times as well. Not exactly Russkie business. Given all of these myriad distractions, its a good thing that the main point of contention in last years presidential race -- the U. S. economy and, specifically, the status of the American working woman and man -- has been a blessed island of tranquility, compared with the political scene at home and abroad. The latest readings of the labor market could have been conjured by Wall Streets favorite fairy-tale character, Goldilocks, with numbers that werent too hot or too cool. The benign figures should help keep not only bears, but also the Federal Reserve, at bay. The January employment report, released on Friday, wasnt the first of the Trump era, but rather the final one to cover the Obama administration. And befitting important releases, its components made one long for Harry Trumans proverbial one-armed economist. On the plus side, nonfarm businesses expanded payrolls by 227,000 last month, about 50,000 more than the median guess from forecasters. But after taking into account revisions that took 39,000 from the prior two months tally, the overall report was close to what economists Ouija boards had indicated it would be. The jobless rate, which comes from a separate survey of households, ticked up by one-tenth of a percentage point, to 4.8, but that wasnt totally a bad thing. The civilian labor force grew, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.9, still near a generational low but above Decembers 62.7. The composition of the workforce was troubling, however. Lynx-eyed Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group, noted a 305,000 drop in prime-age (25 to 54 years old) workers, partially offset by a 195,000 increase in the grizzled 55-plus contingent on the job. Pay, however, was disappointing, with only a 0.1 rise in average hourly earnings. That was less than expected, given that 19 states increased their minimum wages last month. After seasonal adjustment, which assumed a more frigid January than most of the nation experienced, construction payrolls expanded by 36,000, while retail employment increased by 46,000 (which means there actually were fewer layoffs than usual after the holidays). Finally, the so-called underemployment rate (U6 to labor data aficionados) rose to a three-month high of 9.4 from 9.2 in December. David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, notes that the rise reflects a quothugequot 242,000 surge in the number of folks working part-time for economic reasons. Thats quota metric near and dear to Janet Yellens heart, quot he added, referring to the Federal Reserve chair. Prior to the jobs report, the Federal Open Market Committee made no change in interest rates at its regular meeting. There were minimal changes in the panels policy statement, mainly to note that quotmeasures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. quot Among the latter, the Institute of Supply Managements manufacturing gauge rose to 56 from 54.5 in December, while the ISM service-sector measure slipped marginally to 56.5 from 56.6. (A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion.) That should keep the central bank from raising its federal-funds target at the March FOMC meeting. The fed-funds futures market currently is pricing in a quarter-point hike (from the current 0.5 to 0.75 target range) in June and another by December. Perhaps more importantly, longer-term yields have remained subdued, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note staying south of the 2.5 mark. In turn, corporations have taken advantage of salubrious capital-market conditions by bringing bonds to market by the boatload. Last week, old-tech stalwarts Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) and Apple (APPL) issued 17 billion and 10 billion, respectively. Microsoft was following up a 19.75 billion offering last summer, which will help pay for its 26 billion acquisition of LinkedIn. ATampT (T) earlier raised 10 billion, which could go toward its proposed acquisition of Time Warner (TWX). And Broadcom (AVGO) raised 13.55 billion to buy out Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD). Apple, meanwhile, continues to borrow cheaply to fund its share buybacks, despite having 246 billion in cash most of that is overseas, and Cupertino isnt waiting for Washington to ease repatriation taxes. And the availability of cheap capital facilitates other possible deals. On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Macys (M) was approached by Canadas Hudsons Bay (HBAYF) about a possible acquisition. The Canadian company, which owns Saks Fifth Avenue and Lord amp Taylor, is valued at 1.9 billion Canadian dollars (1.4 billion) -- far less than Macys 10 billion stock market value and 7.5 billion debt load. The assumption apparently is that the capital markets would willingly accommodate the deal. It isnt news that cheap debt has funded the repurchase of equity, but JPMorgan economist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou puts it in some perspective. For the first time, global net equity issuance turned negative, which created support for stock prices, despite reduced demand from individual investors. Pundits like to call profits mothers milk for stock prices. Perhaps, but the equity babies are being fattened on artificial formula from the capital markets. As long as the economy remains just right, that flow of liquidity should continue. THE ECONOMIST ROBERT SOLOW once commented at a conference where Milton Friedman presented a paper that quotanother difference between Milton and myself is that everything reminds Milton of the money supply well, everything reminds me of sex, but I try to keep it out of my papers. quot Readers might notice that while sex is kept out of this column, there is an unnatural obsession with closed-end funds. Thats because the sector is chronically mispriced, which can yield investing pain, as well as pleasure. On the latter score, a number of Pimco CEFs felt the double sting of dividend cuts and resulting steep losses. Among them was the Pimco High Income fund (PHK), which plunged 11 on Thursday after its payout was pared by 22. The reason for the severe hit was that the shares had commanded an incomprehensible 50 premium to their net asset value. (To review, CEFs issue a fixed number of shares, which can trade in the aftermarket at a premium or discount to the value of their underlying holdings.) If this sounds familiar, it should be to Barrons readers. Going back at least five years, weve been warning about the unwarranted prices accorded some of the firms CEFs (See the Focus on Funds blog, quot The Pimco Premium -- Totally Grossquot Jan. 23, 2012, and succeeding accounts.) But before the bad news of the payout cut hit, following Wednesdays close, the High Income fund sported a distribution yield of 12.5. That apparently was enough to get investors to overlook the unpleasant reality that, of the 10.35-cent monthly payment per share, 6.19 cents consisted of income while the remaining 4.16 cents were a return of shareholders capital. After Thursdays hit, Pimco High Income still traded at a 34 premium to net asset value. At the reduced payout, the indicated yield was 10.96 -- huge but not necessarily worth paying 1.34 for a bucks worth of assets. At the other end of the spectrum, DoubleLines bond king, Jeffrey Gundlach, picked an attractively cheap bond CEF, the Putnam Premier Income Trust (PPT), in the second installment of this years Barrons Roundtable (quotManual for a Mixed-Up Market, quot Jan. 21). Unfortunately, after readers followed his lead, the Putnam fund wasnt quite the bargain that it had been when Gundlach recommended it. The shares still trade at a discount -- some 5.72 on Thursday -- but one well below its 52-week average of 9.73. (All of these data come from cefconnect.) A sharp-eyed reader points out that a corporate cousin, the Putnam Master Intermediate Income Trust (PIM), has the same managers and a similar portfolio. But it trades at a slightly wider discount (6.71) and higher yield (6.6 versus 5.92). None of these plays will pay like a hot initial public offering. But hey, they keep your mind out of the gutter. Email: randall. forsythbarrons Like Barrons on Facebook Follow Barrons on Twitter (END) Dow Jones Newswires February 04, 2017 00:13 ET (05:13 GMT) Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones amp Company, Inc. Leon Kaye Solicitors Leon Kaye Solicitors Chelsea 0207 228 2020 Knightsbridge 0207 095 0930 Possible Manipulation of gold and silver prices 1999-2014 8211 Proposed Class Action Home Class Actions Possible Manipulation of gold and silver prices 1999-2014 8211 Proposed Class Action leonkaye. co. ukwp-content. ld-200x200.png Possible Manipulation of gold and silver prices 1999-2014 8211 Proposed Class Action Based on documents in the public domain to which we refer below, we consider that there are good grounds to believe that members of six well-known financial services groups combined together to manipulate the outcome of the London Gold Fixing between about 2004 and 2014 and that members of four of those groups combined to manipulate the outcome of the London Silver Fixing between about 1999 and 2014. The effect of this was to create false market prices, in particular by artificially depressing prices after the 3pm (London time) Gold Price Fixing and to increase bid-offer spreads in physical gold, physical silver and their respective derivative instruments. The relevant institutions did this to increase their profits from their own activities in these markets at the expense of other market participants who have therefore suffered loss and damage, probably running into hundreds of millions of pounds in aggregate. If it can be established that these financial institutions participated in price fixing then we consider that there can be little doubt that they have breached section 2 of the Competition Act 1998 and are liable to pay damages to any other market participant that suffered loss and damage as a result. Market participants who have suffered loss and damage are entitled to claim damages in proceedings in the Competition Appeal Tribunal (8220 CAT 8221) in a class action pursued either on an 8216opt-out8217 or an 8216opt-in8217 basis. Introduction to Leon Kaye Solicitors The firm was established in 1974 and since the mid-1990s we have developed particular experience and expertise in the specialised field of class action litigation, specifically in relation to investmentscollective investments. Our major class action cases include claims in respect of Business Expansion Schemes, Resort Hotels, Equitable Life, RBS8217s 2008 Rights Issue and Split Capital Investment Trusts. On behalf of clients we have established two important court rulings which are fundamental to the ability of class action claimants to participate in such claims on a reasonable riskreward basis. Leon Kaye Solicitors are working closely with Own Bullion (ownbullionprecious-. rs-fight-back ) which is a free community for the mining and metals industries. Established in 2015, the community is aimed for investors, prospectors, mining companies and metals enthusiasts with members able to access a range of tools including news, events amp expos, jobs, discussion groups and forums. Members can purchase physical gold or silver through their Allocated Bullion Exchange (ABX) partnership (abxmember-directory ). Gold and silver price manipulation 8211 the facts as we currently understand them It has long time been rumoured in the market that prices have been consistently manipulated by the major financial institutions via the London Gold Fixing and the London Silver Fixing. Until recently, this view was based on anecdotal evidence and the frequency of significant market price changes which could not be objectively explained in any other way. In recent months however, two major new pieces of evidence have emerged which very strongly suggest that the market prices of both gold and silver have been consistently manipulated by the relevant financial institutions via their participation in the London Gold Fixing and the London Silver Fixing. We summarise that evidence below. Deutsche Bank settled class actions in New York On 13 and 14 April 2016 it was publicly announced that Deutsche Bank had agreed to settle two claims against it in the New York court that it had conspired with other financial institutions to fix gold and silver prices at the expense of investors. The agreed terms in relation to the Gold and Silver market have now been made public and settlements of 60 million and 38 million, respectively, have been agreed with between Deutsche Bank and the Claimant investors. Deutsche Bank have also agreed to provide documents and information to assist the investors to pursue claims against the other conspirators. Class actions in Ontario, Canada On 18 December 2015, a class action was commenced in the Superior Court of Ontario, Canada on behalf of all person or entities in Canada who between 1 January 2004 and 16 March 2014 transacted in the gold market (i. e. for physical gold or derivatives) claiming compensatory damages limited to 1 billion arising from the manipulation of the London Gold Fixing during that. A detailed Statement of Claim was filed on 15 January 2016. On 15 April 2015 a further class action was commenced in the Superior Court of Ontario, Canada on behalf of all person or entities in Canada who between 1 January 1999 and 14 August 2014 transacted in the silver market (i. e. for physical silver or derivatives) claiming compensatory damages limited to 1 billion arising from the manipulation of the London Silver Fixing during that period. It is the above developments, which lead us to conclude that there are good grounds to believe that the relevant financial institutions combined together to manipulate gold and silver prices via the London Fixings. Our proposals for bringing a class action or actions seeking compensation for victims of gold and silver price manipulation Section 2 of the Competition Act 1988 provides so far as relevant: (1) 82208230 agreements between undertakings, decisions by associations of undertakings or concerted practices which 8211 (a) may affect trade within the United Kingdom, and (b) have as their effect the prevention, restriction or distortion of competition within the United Kingdom are prohibited82308221 (2) Subsection (1) applies, in particular to agreements, decisions or practices which - (a) directly or indirectly fix purchase or selling prices82308221 Sections 47A and 47B of the Competition Act 1998 and the CAT Rules enable claimants to make claims for damages for infringements of section 2 before the CAT by way of a class action (called 8220collective proceedings8221) on either an opt-in or opt-out basis, subject to the permission and control of the CAT. Opt-in proceedings are brought by a representative claimant on behalf of a class of claimants who have expressly opted into the litigation. Opt-out proceedings are brought by a representative claimant on behalf of a class of claimants falling within a particular class unless they opt-out of the litigation. Claimants domiciled outside the UK are excluded from opt-out proceedings unless they expressly opt in. We invite any investors who believe that they may have been adversely affected by the alleged manipulation of the market price for gold and silver by the financial institutions to contact this firm for further information on by email on infoleonkaye. co. uk or by telephone on 0207 228 2020. Class Actions Pages Tel: 0207 228 2020 Knightsbridge Leon Kaye Solicitors 45 Pont Street Most traders fail because they have no edge. Great discipline, psychology, and money management will not turn a losing system into a winner. A-B-S-O-L-U-T-E-L-Y so what are the reasons for traders failing even when given an edge Very simple. poor or no money management. Thats the second most important reason why most traders fail. They trade, trade, trade, trade, trade (making small profits along the way) and then one day they let a small loss turn into a HUGE 75 drawdown or more, for example. Now they have a big problem, right So the next thing they do is risk an even great percentage of their account on the next trades, so that they can at least get their money back (quotHey, no problem, the market will come back. quot). And then BAM, they blow up their account, because at that point it only takes a couple (or even a single) losing trade(s) to empty the remaining of their trading account. That, my friends, is the typical behavior of an undisciplined, uninformed trader. In fact, most traders (especially new comers) do not even have a clue what money management is. For example, risking no more than 2 or 3 of trading capital on each trade (a sound money management habit by all means) is a concept unknown to them. Risking quotonlyquot 2 or 3 on each trade is extremely boring for them, they want the big bucks now. Then one day, sooner or later, they bet the whole farm on a couple of cannot-lose, quotfoolproofquot trades and they lose everything. Always remember this important mathematical fact folks. It takes only one (1) bad losing trade to lose 100 of your capital, no matter how much money you earned before. Quoting forextrades Most traders fail because they have no edge. Great discipline, psychology, and money management will not turn a losing system into a winner. I say both are important, a good strategy will only be effective if the trader has the skills or ability to follow its trading rule consistently and observe proper risk management, otherwise it will yield the same bad results. From hanover: So the next question should be: Can we build the perfect Robot. Thats the million dollar question. Human traders can potentially use a wider variety of analysis types -- e. g. FA, context (sessiontime of day, news exploitationavoidance, correlation, MTF analysis. ), line studies, visual abstracts and patterns, pattern quality assessment, etc etc, which are anything from difficult to impossible to code. Hence EAs tend to rely more heavily on mathematical tools and approximations, technical indicators, grids, and dubious MMs like martingale variants -- i. e. a significantly different approach. Their lack of qualitative intelligence is compensated for by a number of obvious benefits. I listed some of these in this post. Yet despite all of these benefits, very few long-term profitable retail EAs exist. That suggests to me that the discretion is an important ingredient in successful trading. These days I prefer a semi-automated approach, although its still a work in progress. Daniel Fernandez is an expert on creating mechanicalrobotic trading systems, as well as being a prolific author on this topic. You can find a vast number of his articles here . Quoting techboy46 I say both are important, a good strategy will only be effective if the trader has the skills or ability to follow its trading rule consistently and observe proper risk management, otherwise it will yield the same bad results. True. But even if you apply good money management techniques and are 100 disciplined, how do you know if your trading system has indeed a trading edge to begin with More than 90 of traders, here on FF or elsewhere, are totally unable to answer this simple question. Sure, some of them will say something like quotHey look, my system made 200 pips last weekquot Big deal, so what What does it really prove Nothing, just that you made 200 pips last week, nothing more. Quoting Mr Breakout True. But even if you apply good money management techniques and are 100 disciplined, how do you know if your trading system has indeed a trading edge to begin with More than 90 of traders, here on FF or elsewhere, are totally unable to answer this simple question. Sure, some of them will say something like quotHey look, my system made 200 pips last weekquot Big deal, so what What does it really prove Nothing, just that you made 200 pips last week, nothing more. A good question, finding a strategy that has an edge will be up to the individual trader to find out and at what criteria that he can finally say hey this system has the edge. That is why it is important to be disciplined during the testing period of a particular trading strategy so that he can assess the full potential of such strategy, but if a trader is inconsistent in the implementation of the rule, their is no way to know that such system has an edge, so this is also an aspect that should be look upon by traders, before a trader say hey this is such a bad system, he has to ask himself first, did I do it right did I follow the rule exactly as it was describe or written, otherwise he has to do it all over again. Commitment is also one aspect that must be done when testing a particular strategy, so say I will test this strategy for 3 consecutive months with discipline and if it gives me profits then I will keep it, but the problem to most traders is the moment it gives 2 or more consecutive loses he will began to doubt his current strategy and may jump to another strategy so the psychological aspect will always play a big factor during testing period. It is also important to know during testing what is exactly what you want in a winning system something that gives you winnings all the time or 6 consecutive winner with 1 or 2 loses or anything as long that it gives positive profits at the end of the month or year, there will be different definition that may come out from a traders mind and to me this is a critical aspect during the testing period, a trader must be very clear of what results he want from his trading strategy. Another thing some traders may already possess a good trading strategy or methodology but they cannot implement its trading rule consistently so they were not getting positive results. Quoting Mr Breakout True. But even if you apply good money management techniques and are 100 disciplined, how do you know if your trading system has indeed a trading edge to begin with More than 90 of traders, here on FF or elsewhere, are totally unable to answer this simple question. Sure, some of them will say something like quotHey look, my system made 200 pips last weekquot Big deal, so what What does it really prove Nothing, just that you made 200 pips last week, nothing more. Exactly. Very few people do any real backtesting on this forum. No optimization. No Monte Carlo analysis. They have something that may look good visually on the charts, but offer no stats to back it up. Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,600 Posts As I have noted for many years, gold has a rough general tendency to decline ahead of the US jobs report, and then rally in the hours andor days following the release of the report. The next monthly jobs report will be released at 8:30AM on Friday. This report and the closure of the Chinese gold market for the New Years holiday should be quite negative for gold, but The sell-off from the 1220 area is orderly, and gold feels firm. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold did break down from a small double top pattern. The price target of the pattern is 1170, but there may be an uptrend channel forming. Ive highlighted that in blue. Also, the lead line of the 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator that I use exclusively on daily bar and candlestick charts is now sitting at about 50, where momentum-based rallies can occur. With China offline and the jobs report dead ahead, why is gold acting so firmly Well, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The US dollar looks very weak on this daily bars chart against the Swiss Franc. Its broken down from a head and shoulders top pattern, and has not rallied since arriving at technical support yesterday. The rally could still happen, and that would likely push gold down to 1170 ahead of the jobs report. Given that gold has rallied from 1125 to 1220, a decline to 1170 is perfectly normal. An orderly decline like this should not make gold investors nervous. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this dollar versus yen chart. All gold community eyes should be focused on the 112.50 price level. A breakdown below that level would almost certainly usher in a gold price rally to my 1250 target zone. The Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and gold bullion are all viewed as key risk off assets by bank FOREX traders. Its clear that the dollar is struggling now against both the franc and the yen. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly bars euro versus the dollar chart. The euro never rallied against the dollar in 2016 in the way that the franc, yen, and gold did. Thats partly because Europes economic recovery has been more anemic than Americas, but mainly because euro is not viewed as a safe haven currency by the large bank traders. Having said that, most gold price discovery takes place in US dollars, and a rally in the euro could add some zest to the gold price The recovery taking place in Europe now could be enough to reverse the ECBs policies of QE and low interest rates. That would create both European inflation and a euro rally. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily bars GDX chart. Gold stocks are performing exceptionally well since gold ran into resistance at my 1220 target zone. Can GDX rally to 25 if gold falls to 1170 I think thats asking a bit much (for now), but GDX should easily rally to 25 if gold can climb back to 1220. A rally to 1250 would likely see GDX surge to 28, and a bigger move to 1650 for gold should see GDX make a new all-time high. Thats a bit further down the road, but eager gold stock investors should ensure they are building a solid block of core positions now, to partake in all the upside fun Comments from Benjaminis: I will repeat the items (Numbers) that relate directly to what I teach here as applies to Forex Trading. This will give you the complete picture to study and understand. (7) With China offline and the jobs report dead ahead, why is gold acting so firmly Well, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The US dollar looks very weak on this daily bars chart against the Swiss Franc. (11) Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this dollar versus yen chart. (13) The Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and gold bullion are all viewed as key risk off assets by bank FOREX traders. (14) Its clear that the dollar is struggling now against both the franc and the yen. (15) Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly bars euro versus the dollar chart. (16) The euro never rallied against the dollar in 2016 in the way that the franc, yen, and gold did. (17) Thats partly because Europes economic recovery has been more anemic than Americas, but mainly because euro is not viewed as a safe haven currency by the large bank traders. (18) Having said that, most gold price discovery takes place in US dollars, and a rally in the euro could add some zest to the gold price (19) The recovery taking place in Europe now could be enough to reverse the ECBs policies of QE and low interest rates. (20) That would create both European inflation and a euro rally. (24) A rally to 1250 would likely see GDX surge to 28, and a bigger move to 1650 for gold should see GDX make a new all-time high. Thats a bit further down the road, but eager gold stock investors should ensure they are building a solid block of core positions now, to partake in all the upside fun Snippet: Weaker US Could Send Gold amp Gold Stocks to Higher Targets Gold has underperformed both in nominal and real terms. Last week it formed a bearish reversal in nominal terms and against foreign currencies. However, the good news for bulls is the US Dollar Index lost support at 100, due to the Trump administrations tough talk against Germany (and the Euro). Couple that with no movement from the Fed and the greenback should continue its decline, thereby juicing the current rebound in Gold and especially gold stocks. Take a look at the daily candle charts in the image below. We plot the US Dollar index, the DollarYen cross and the 10-year Treasury yield. The US Dollar index has a potential measured downside target of 97 which happens to coincide with a confluence of moving average support. DollarYen has not broken its corrective lows yet but if it does it would strengthen the odds the US Dollar index falls to 97. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has some more room to fall if its correction were to continue. In short, lower levels on all these charts is short-term bullish for precious metals. The daily candle chart below shows GDXJ and GDX. The 200-day moving average has held GDXJ but it has a great chance to continue its rally up to 40-41. GDX could reach 25-26. Take a look at a weekly chart and you will notice the significance of those aforementioned targets. The bar weekly charts of GDX and GDXJ are shown below. GDX 26 and GDXJ 41 mark the strongest resistance moving forward. Those levels have been tested 8 times in the past four years compared to the 2013 and 2016 highs which have been tested only 3 times. Its unlikely the miners break resistance (26 and 41) on the first try. The miners continue to lead as they are on the cusp of higher highs in this recovery while Gold is further away from breaking its resistance at 1220. As we noted in our last missive, a pullback from resistance (the upside targets) is likely. The question though is will the pullback be something bullish or will it evolve into a multi-month correction We have accumulated a number of juniors gradually but are maintaining some cash in advance of the next correction. How Your Trading Strategies Determine Your Trading Results by Mohammed Isah January 31st, 2017 Traders, along with most people who are seriously attempting to do their best in anything that requires lots of focus, mental alertness, information processing, analysis and commitment, also must have a strategy of how its going to be done. All of these mental initiatives are integral to the big picture, but arguably one of the most important is the strategy that you employ. By strategy I mean the overarching plan, your big picture series of steps that are designed to catapult your efforts into the realm of success. Strategy also represents the science and art of adapting complex protocols, structures and behaviors that serve an important function to achieving effectiveness in the effort. So, strategy forms the foundation of how you would move forward in your trading. Strategy also uses information and data in generating the big picture and the details prior to setting the plan in action. Information and data in trading can be said to have two domains or spheres that the trader uses to structure the process the Mechanical and the Internal. The Mechanical encompasses all the perfunctory items of the trade, the mechanics if you will. Examples of the mechanics of the trade are: charting, analysis, planning, news, economic reports, entries, targets, stops and exits, to name a few. The Mechanical Data of trading represent the components or moving parts that are, for the most part, external to the trader and are usually manipulated in some way. The Internal Data are intricately related to and an outgrowth of your mindset. They are comprised of thoughts (attitudes, beliefs, biases, values and internal pictures) that stem from personal conditioning and programming going back as far as infancy, and emotions which are outgrowths of and determined by those same thoughts. Emotions can initiate a thought as well but original emotions or the initial emotion involved in an event always comes from a thought and, in most cases, this thought may be in the form of an unconscious personal belief, which might be limiting or irrational. Finally, behaviors make up internal data too and they represent the last item that takes place just before you get a result or outcome. In fact, these three internal items, thoughts, emotions and behaviors, comprise a formula for getting any outcome. In other words, any result that you experience is an extension of the interplay between thoughts, emotions and behaviors and they are always present as in TEBR (ThoughtEmotionBeliefResult). Internal data is the foundation and initiates the making of your ability to follow rules and keep commitments your self-discipline. These two domains of data, the Mechanical and the Internal, form the foundation of the trading process and they are always involved. Furthermore, they are of equal importance and must be and remain balanced in order for your trading process to ultimately be consistently successful. In fact, your earliest strategies almost invariably involved mechanical ways of perceiving and manipulating the process. For example, traders are taught technical analysis strategies of price patterns, candle formations, moving averages, indicators, time frames and supply and demand zones. They learn about the mechanics of planning, entries, targets, stops. Novice traders are instructed in the interpretation of news, economic reports, technology, sectors, the broad markets and the interplay of international markets. These mechanical strategies are integral and they must learn to master core strategies like supply and demand. Of course all trading strategies are not created equal and you must choose your strategies well and learn to master them through training, practice, repetition and documentation. Documentation allows you to measure, verify and, if need be, modify your core strategy along the way to becoming a consistently successful trader. Unfortunately, many traders stop there. They only learn and incorporate strategies that are mechanical and therefore ignore the Internal Data which forms the core of self-discipline. Free Trading Workshop, Here is the buried lead, you must have Mechanical Data strategies, but it is imperative that you also learn, train, incorporate, practice, repeat and master Internal Data strategies. No matter how awesome your Mechanical Data strategies are, if you cannot follow the rules of your trading strategies and keep the commitments that you have made to your trading process, then the mechanical strategies are useless. It would be as if they did not exist. Your discipline, which is a direct product of your internal data and your ability to manage your internal mentalemotional state, is crucial to your overall success. So, it follows that you must use, early and often, mental and emotional tools that are part of an overarching internal data strategy for creating a trading mindset that develops the capacity for emotional strength and endurance in the trade. Trading is difficult not because it is rocket science, it is not but because when you are in the trade your limiting and irrational beliefs about self and markets are challenged by your concepts of money and the prospect of loss (causing fear) and gain (initiating greed). Your A-Game is required every time you prepare to open your trading platform and you must sustain it while you are in the trading trenches. This is what we teach in Mastering the Mental Game Online and On-location courses. Ask your Online Trading Academy representative for more information. Also, get my book, From Pain to Profit: Secrets of the Peak Performance Trader. Happy Trading Written by Dr. Woody Johnson, Online Trading Strategies. Dr. M. Woodruff Johnson has actively and successfully traded stock options, forex and futures since 2000. He is the former Executive Director of the Kaiser Permanente, Watts Counseling and Learning Center. He holds certifications in Accelerated Learning, Neurosensory Development and hypnotherapy, and he is a Certified NLP Master Practitioner. Dr. Woody is also an Associate Professor and teaches graduate psychology courses at Pacific Oaks College and Ryokan College. He has provided clinical staff services in hospitals and community clinics as well. He has a passion for helping others to achieve their goals and get the results in trading and life that they desire. Dr. Woody has been using mindbody healing techniques both professionally and personally with much success for many years. He is the author of From Pain to Profit: Secrets of the Peak Performance Trader. Comments from Benjaminis: There we have it, as a very complete picture has been shared by myself on page 93 of the thread started on December 3, 2016. The rest is up to you as I have been saying from the first page of this thread. Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,600 Posts We have until March 31, 2017. 4 TRADE PLANS. (1) Short US 30 - 100 units - STOP LOSS - 1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 maybe as high as 1 to 3. Lower stops once you have minimum profit. (2) Short USDJPY - 100 units - STOP LOSS - 1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and LOWER STOPS to always lock in minimum profit of 250 US Dollars. (3) LONG Gold - 100 Ounces - STOP LOSS - 1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and as High as 1 to 3. (4) Long Silver - 5000 Ounces - STOP LOSS - S1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and as High as 1 to 3. THAT IS IT. Just have the DISCIPLINE to do it. AS FOR FEAR OF LOSS. FIRST LEARN ON YOUR 50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo Account. Unless you are really really good now STOP trading Real Funds. This is about learning good habits and getting confidence then you will trade much more effectively with your own funds and I strongly suggest a Minimum Trading Account of 10,000 US Dollars and then you can NEVER have on more than 20 of your capital or no more than 2 positions of 100 units at any one time. From Post 1453 - Our Method For New Readers From Post 1172 - Money Flow Method with Risk Management. I post this again so there is NO DOUBT on How To Trade Forex and Earn Money and Protect Your Capital. Once again. I try hard for everyone to understand all the parts that would guarantee your success if you have the necessary skills and DISCIPLINE. I can not guarantee that you do however I will know for sure by your Forex Trading results. It is up to you not myself as I have done my part and at least three of our Forex Traders are learning well. The three that are working on it and participating. IT IS THAT SIMPLE and that has too be clear so JUST DO IT. I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100 of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals. This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes. Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we quotSEEquot the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well. Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders. which I have named. The 5 Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it. Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20 to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE. (1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it. The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a 50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with 50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10 a month or 120 a year. (2) Money Flow. I have now explained why. (3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be 10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have 10,000 US Dollars trade with. Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially 50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over 100,000 US Dollars. (4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO. (5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it. I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the 50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a 50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS. As always. I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread. Summary Economic data remains strong and earnings reports are OK. There is pervasive nervousness about Presidential Actions. This leaves investors and traders wondering if it is safe to go into the water. There is reasonable stock upside, even without legislative help on Trump policies. Trade policy remains a fear, but one that can be readily monitored. We have a rather light week for economic data. The biggest reports came last week. Earnings season continues. Everyone is keeping a close eye on President Trump, wondering what might happen next. Meanwhile, stocks are at all-time highs and interest rates have stabilized. This combination creates more questions than answers, which will lead the punditry to wonder: Is the market optimism justified Last Week Last week the economic news was strong, but (once again) with little reaction from stocks. Theme Recap In my last WTWA two weeks ago I predicted a focus on volatility, wondering whether policy uncertainty would have a reaction in stocks. That was a good call, although overshadowed by the policy moves themselves. There were several articles on volatility, mostly noting the lack of reaction in the VIX . The Story in One Chart I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. She notes that the weeks gain was all from early action on Friday. Some attributed this to the employment report, but the timing is more consistent with a reaction to Trump actions on Dodd-Frank. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 110970c-pi. png Let us also update another chart from this useful weekly article - a graphic picture of drawdowns. You can readily see both the frequency and magnitude. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 112970c-pi. png Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words Read his entire post for several more charts providing long-term perspective. Some Super Bowl Fun with Two Hidden Lessons Most readers will be watching the Super Bowl today. Did you know how important this is for market performance in 2017 The old AFCNFC forecast is pass. We now must quotdig deeperquot into the data. By email I received an analysis that looked at Mannings, Broncos, and other factors. Ill focus on this years table. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. c25970b-pi. png And here is the recommended interpretation: Looking at the averages, one might think that having New England or Bill Belichick in the big game is no big deal. A look at the year by year results shows that this could be a huge deal since the averages mask big swings in both directions. For New England, just being in the big game could be a bearish sign as the market has dropped 6 on average in years where the Patriots have played in the Super Bowl since the turn of the century. During the Tom Brady dynasty years, the Patriots have won four of six times so far while the market is tied 3-3. Two of the years the Patriots have made the big game, 2002 and 2008 have coincided with major bear markets, an ominous sign. Markets have also been volatile in years where Bill Belichick has coached in the big game both with New England and the New York Giants. Following his coaching appearances, the market has finished up 30 once, down 30 once, up 20 once and down 20 once. Conclusion: What Super Bowl matchups could mean for the market in 2017 Based on the volatile reaction by markets to seeing New England and Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl, combined with the short-term positive, long - term negative reaction to last years win by Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, it looks like we could be in for a highly volatile for the markets this year. The bull market of recent years could be due for a setback. While signs are mixed over what direction the market may finish the year, there is a strong possibility of a 20 plus move this year. Jane Wells asked some questions (What milestone did the Dow recently pass Who is Janet Yellen) to the high-income Super Bowl Participants. You will enjoy their answers. Oscar likes the Falcons. but Vince insists that football picks are not part of his programming Mrs. OldProf likes the Falcons as well, but that is just because they beat her Packers. Ill stick with the Michigan man. Use the comments to suggest the quothiddenquot lessons. WTWA readers should not need me for this one. The News Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an quotuglyquot and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of quotgoodquot has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news - and you should, too This weeks news was again quite good-almost all positive. I make objective calls, which means not stretching to achieve a false balance. If I missed something for the quotbadquot list, please feel free to suggest it in the comments. Consumer spending rose 0.5 in December, beating Novembers increase of 0.2 and expectations of 0.4. Pending home sales rose 1.6, beating expectations for a 0.6 gain. Consumer confidence remained high at 111.8, although slightly slower than the December reading. Initial jobless claims remained low, at 246K. (Calculated Risk ). Factory orders increased 1.3 beating expectations and much better than the 2.3 loss from November. ISM manufacturing registered 56, beating expectations and reaching a level not seen for more than two years. (Scott Grannis ). This chart shows why it is important. Auto sales remained at record levels. (Phil LeBeau. CNBC). There is also a shift to the more profitable vehicles. Nonfarm payrolls showed a net gain of 227K. The headline solidly beat expectations, so I am scoring this as quotgood. quot The details were a bit more mixed, with some slight negatives. This is my own summary after reading many sources. Headline job gain. Increase in labor force participation. Benchmark revisions confirming that prior data was something of an under-estimate - also showing healthy growth of jobs from new businesses. (This parallels the Business Dynamics report, which I wrote about here ). Small negative revisions to prior months. No gain in the quothousehold surveyquot employment. Slight uptick in unemployment. Sluggish increase (0.1) in wage gains. Personal income increased by 0.3 in December, slightly missing expectations for a gain of 0.4, but much stronger than the prior months 0.1 gain. Construction spending for December declined 0.2, missing expectations for a slight gain and dramatically lower than the prior months 0.9 pop. Earnings beats are slightly below recent averages. (Factset ). The Ugly A possible Chinese stress test for Trump. Jennifer M. Harris. Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations has an Op-Ed piece, with the full article at CNN. Here is the key quote: Major geopolitical crises have a way of greeting US presidents soon after taking office. Nazi Germanys withdrawal from the League of Nations in 1933, the Soviet-led construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 - all were among the most daunting tests of US foreign policy in the past century, and all came less than a year into the tenures of new US administrations. This is no accident. Foreign governments often like to test a new White House early on. Russia, Iran, and North Korea are other obvious candidates. The Silver Bullet I occasionally give the Silver Bullet award to someone who takes up an unpopular or thankless cause, doing the real work to demonstrate the facts. Jacob Wolinsky has a terrific review of Harry Dent predictions. Here is one of the most dramatic, from just a year ago. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. - pithumb1.png Time to redraw that one. The power of graphs with red lines and arrows is amazing. Jacobs article also includes the results of a Google search for Dents predictions. You must see it to believe it I especially appreciate that Jacob was inspired by his Silver Bullet award in 2013. I only wish that more would join me in highlighting people doing this kind of valuable work. Meanwhile, Mr. Dents business model is working just fine. Check out the speaking fees. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. c2b970b-pi. png The Week Ahead We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead. You can make your own predictions in the comments. The Calendar It is back to normal for the volume of economic data, but the most important reports came last week. Michigan Sentiment (F). Continued strength anticipated. Special interest in future expectations. Trade balance (T). December data with impact on Q4 GDP adjustments. Will be watched more closely as Trump policy is clarified. Initial jobless claims (Th). How long can the amazing strength continue JOLTS report. Misunderstood and misused. This is about labor market structure, not job growth. Wholesale inventories (Th). December data can have some effect on GDP adjustment. Favorite spinning target. Crude inventories (Th). Recently showing even more impact on oil prices. Rightly or wrongly, that spills over to stocks. Fed speakers are back on the trail. Questions will probe the new political environment and hints about future rate hikes. Earnings reports will remain important. Early actions from the Trump Administration have captured the spotlight and will continue to do so. Next Weeks Theme There is plenty of good economic news. A nice chart-packed review from Steven Hansen (GEI ). And also from Urban Camel. Here is just one example comparing full-time and part-time jobs. There are plenty of great charts in both posts. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. a8f970d-pi. png The earnings recession is over and future growth looks good. (Brian Gilmartin ). And yet everyone is nervous. (Great piece from Josh Brown ). While President Trump will continue to grab the spotlight this week, I will continue my focus on the stock market fundamentals. In todays Final Thought I will offer some suggestions about how to implement this approach. Meanwhile, expect the key question for this week to be: Is market optimism justified The basic positions cover a wide range. Even if one or more of them seem incredible to you, be assured that someone passionately maintains that viewpoint. You must be kidding Market valuations are in nosebleed territory. Investors are like Wile E. Coyote. It is only a matter of time before the new Administration does something to spark a crisis. Technical indicators have moved to neutral. (Charles Kirk and Guy Ortmann of Scarsdale Equities. Both are excellent, but require a relationship). Markets can expect solid earnings growth with upside of 10 or so. (Ed Yardeni. Barrons). Companies are getting more comfortable with Trump and more confident about the future. (Avondale digest of conference calls - a great resource). Tax cuts, repatriation of corporate profits, and lower regulations will create an explosion in economic growth. What does this mean for investors As usual, Ill have a few ideas of my own in todays quotFinal Thoughtquot. Quant Corner We follow some regular great sources and the best insights from each week. Risk Analysis Whether you are a trader or an investor, you need to understand risk. Think first about your risk. Only then should you consider possible rewards . I monitor many quantitative reports and highlight the best methods in this weekly update. Although dropping last week, the yield on the ten-year note has increased significantly since the election. This has lowered the risk premium a bit. I suspect much more to come. By this I mean that the relative attractiveness of stocks and bonds will continue to narrow. The C-Score has also dropped. The relationship is not linear, and it remains in the quotsafequot zone. The Featured Sources: Bob Dieli . The quotC Scorequot which is a weekly estimate of his Enhanced Aggregate Spread (the most accurate real-time recession forecasting method over the last few decades). His subscribers get Monthly reports including both an economic overview of the economy and employment. (see below). Holmes: Our cautious and clever watchdog, who sniffs out opportunity like a great detective, but emphasizes guarding assets. Brian Gilmartin . Analysis of expected earnings for the overall market as well as coverage of many individual companies. RecessionAlert . Many strong quantitative indicators for both economic and market analysis. While we feature his recession analysis, Dwaine also has several interesting approaches to asset allocation. Try out his new public Twitter Feed. the source of this interesting chart: staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. pithumb1.jpeg This illustrates Dwaines take on leading indicators, asking about time above the current value. Georg Vrba . The Business Cycle Indicator and much more. Check out his site for an array of interesting methods. Georg regularly analyzes Bob Dielis enhanced aggregate spread, considering when it might first give a recession signal. Scott Grannis: The market is not very optimistic. This shows the importance of our weekly coverage of the equity risk premium, showing the relative attractiveness of investors two major choices - stocks and bonds. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 2f970b-pi. jpeg How to Use WTWA (especially important for new readers) In this series, I share my preparation for the coming week. I write each post as if I were speaking directly to one of my clients. Most readers can just quotlisten in. quot If you are unhappy with your current investment approach, we will be happy to talk with you. I start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. لا يوجد الاندفاع. Each client is different, so I have eight different programs ranging from very conservative bond ladders to very aggressive trading programs. A key question: Are you preserving wealth, or like most of us, do you need to create more wealth Most of my readers are not clients. While I write as if I were speaking personally to one of them, my objective is to help everyone. I provide several free resources. Just write to info at newarc dot com for our current report package. We never share your email address with others, and send only what you seek. (Like you, we hate spam) Best Advice for the Week Ahead The right move often depends on your time horizon. Are you a trader or an investor Insight for Traders We consider both our models and the top sources we follow. Felix and Holmes We continue with a strongly bullish market forecast. All our models are now fully invested. The group meets weekly for a discussion they call the quotStock Exchange. quot In each post I include a trading theme, ideas from each of our four technical experts, and some rebuttal from a fundamental analyst (usually me). We try to have fun, but there are always fresh ideas. Last week Holmes made a timely call on Macys (NYSE:M ). Many of the stocks cited are worth your consideration. Top Trading Advice As I suspected a few weeks ago, Dr. Brett Steenbarger is taking a sabbatical to work on his next book. Most traders have probably not matched me in reading all his posts. Many of them have enduring value, so you should take some time to review his archives. My favorite this week helps you to explore you best trading strengths and virtues . Ralph Vince has a warning about Trump Effects: While everyone is in a lathered-up blather about executive orders and screeching, we gotta keep our eyes on the ball. I for one cant get sucked up into political noise when theres money to be made. Nearly everyone I speak to is looking for three things: 1. A pullback in equities. 2. Interest rates have bottomed and will now approach more historically normal levels. 3. Volatility is bound to increase in the coming months and perhaps years. And the degree of which I am hearing this makes me quite certain none of these are in the cards. A colorful YOLO story - possibly fake - about a trader going quotall-inquot on poor earnings from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL ). His collection of puts and short call spreads would make 5 million if it worked, recovering the 2.5 million inheritance he lost in two years. With the strong report, he was completely blown out, as witnessed on a live stream. There are many lessons here whether it was true or not. Handling wealth. Position size, whatever your confidence. Suspicion about those making dramatic calls to sell their services. Insight for Investors Investors have a longer time horizon. The best moves frequently involve taking advantage of trading volatility Best of the Week If I had to pick a single most important source for investors to read this week it would be Davidson (via Todd Sullivan), who pulls together economic data and conclusions in his explanation of why stronger Employment Reports Indicate Higher Equity Markets. He includes several important indicators, emphasizing the need to look at several. This illustrates the right way to do financial research. He writes: One must continuously test indicators against each other to be intellectually honest. Stock Ideas Barrons likes Chilis (Brinker International (NYSE:EAT )) but not Chipotle (NYSE:CMG ). Our trading model, Holmes, has joined our other models in a weekly market discussion. Each one has a different quotpersonalityquot and I get to be the human doing fundamental analysis. We have an enjoyable discussion every week, including four or five specific ideas that we are buying. This week the dip-buying Holmes (who has been very hot) liked Macys. That worked well for those who did their own research and agreed. Seeking yield How about health care REITs Blue Harbinger analyzes twenty candidates, two of which we own. Personal Finance Professional investors and traders have been making Abnormal Returns a daily stop for over ten years. If you are a serious investor managing your own account, this is a must-read. Even the more casual long-term investor should make time for a weekly trip on Wednesday. Tadas always has first-rate links for investors in his weekly special edition. My personal favorites this week are two entries I see as related. Josh Brown points out the opportunity for young people to start saving and investing, enjoying compound interest. Tony Isola shows the flip side - the cost of an impulsive purchase paid off on a credit card. This is a great lesson staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. pithumb1.jpeg Seeking Alpha Editor Gil Weinreichs Financial Advisors Daily Digest has quickly become a must-read for financial professionals. Somewhat to my surprise, the topics are also especially relevant for active individual investors. They frequently join in the comments, adding to the value of the posts for both groups. Gil has several good topics, but I especially liked this discussion of the fiduciary rule. Most people do not understand what this means, and what is at stake. I strongly support Gils argument. Watch out for Binary options. Another product that seems simple but few understand or trade successfully. (FT ). BDCs. BDC Buzz has the story. VIX trading. Bill Luby provides data on the poor results of VIX ETPs. Many are tempted to buy the VIX as a hedge without even knowing how it is calculated or whether it is a leading indicator. Final Thoughts Like Josh Brown, I am hearing a lot of worry about what might happen in the Trump Administration. Over the last several months I have highlighted all of the following: An expectation that the Market would rally no matter who won the election - just removing one element of uncertainty. The earnings recession ended in Q316. Forward earnings are the most effective way to forecast the market, and 8-10 higher is quite plausible. PE multiples are strong when people have confidence in earnings. This could be conservative if repatriation, better growth, or reduced regulation come to pass. The best sectors are financials, tech, home builders, and some biotech. The biggest market worry is a battle over trade, especially with China. To my surprise I opened Barrons and found Dr. Ed Yardeni making exactly the same points. Anyone reading WTWA for the last few months could have done the interview. I generate my own ideas and reach my own conclusions, but I always like it when astute analysts look at the same evidence and agree. In a similar vein, my Seeking Alpha colleague Bill Kort has a great analysis of the danger of mixing your opinions about news with your investments. I am delighted that some of my work and my highlighting of Morgan Housel encouraged him to pursue this valuable topic. Policy uncertainty remains the most important investor worry. We can mitigate this in two ways: De-emphasize the social issues . Yes, they are important. Feel them passionately if you wish. As an investor, you must ask whether they affect your portfolio. Consider timing. We cannot know about and react to a military attack. We can monitor the progress of trade negotiations. The most important investor threats still leave us time to react. I am watching closely, and so should you. Disclosure: I amwe are long M, F, AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Summary The Federal Reserves reluctance to hike rates in both its February and March meetings is causing (or expected to cause) some level of weakness in the dollar. This is also beneficial for gold and emerging markets, which tend to run in inverse relation to the US dollar. The Fed will likely be reluctant to hike until it gains greater insight into the new legislation on trade, taxes, regulation, and government spending. My current thinking is that the Fed stays on hold until June (and perhaps September, depending on how things go). Thesis I expect the Federal Reserve to remain dovish on US monetary policy until the June meeting as it integrates more information about how various policy decisions work to affect the US economy. This is neutral to slightly positive for the US equities markets (NYSEARCA:SPY ) (NYSEARCA:DIA ) (NASDAQ:QQQ ). Overview Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD ) is up and the US dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP )(NYSEARCA:UDN ) is down on the back of the US Federal Reserve holding rates steady at its first of nine meetings during 2017. Gold has broken back above 1,200 per ounce. The dollar index has lost about 1 of its value over the past week amid Trumps statements over the value of the dollar (bias toward a somewhat weaker currency to increase trade competitiveness) and a very slight boost from the Fed inaction, with the market going from a 97 certainty to 100 certainty that the overnight rate would be maintained. The market is currently pricing in an 18 chance of a 25-basis point rate increase at the Feds March 15 meeting, according to the fed funds futures market. There is a 69 chance of a hike by June, 43 chance of two increases by September, and 35 chance of three by the end of the year. By this point next year (January 31, 2018 meeting), the market is pricing in two rate hikes in terms of median expectations. To be exact, the market is expecting 2.2 rate increases with the expected value of the median federal funds rate implied at 1.168, just above the 1.125 effective rate of the overnight rate being set at 100-125 bps. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 8778096325.png ( Source: CME Group ) Based on the economy in its current form, I believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates twice in 2017. I believe once at two of the three meetings held in June, September, and December. Despite the Feds statements of higher inflation forthcoming, this is still a very historically dovish central bank committee headed by chairwoman Janet Yellen. Even outside of the philosophical bent of the current makeup of the Fed, there are still several structural elements that could hold back inflation moving forward. Stated in a previous article. I covered what I believe to be the main barriers to higher inflation: Despite a wave of reflationary optimism, the US economy has disinflationary headwinds from a variety of angles including productive resources underutilization, industrial overcapacity in China and India, high public debt scenarios in developed economies, a stronger US dollar, and the pull-forward of consumption from 8-9 years of ultra-low interest rates. So while the markets may be betting on inflation, as seen through higher stock prices and higher Treasury yields, various impediments may spark a reversal of these recent trends. Despite the political shift in the US toward more expansionary fiscal initiatives - intended slashing of corporate and individual tax rates, deregulation, repatriation of overseas cash, infrastructure spending - the policies of one particular political administration are not going to hike growth and inflation on their own. The US is responsible for 24-25 of the worlds GDP, so it is a very systemically important economy that greatly influences other parts of the globe. But it single-handedly will not be the cure to many of the structural barriers to growth worldwide. But going back to the Fed, I personally didnt expect gold and the US dollar to react as they did to rates being put on hold. Even a 0.5 change in each seemed too strong a move. I had believed the reaction would have been minimal, but it illustrates the degree to which investors were considering the notion that the Fed was serious about raising rates as soon as March. I believe thats unlikely. Nothing in the Yellen Feds history has suggested that inflation has increased enough to the point where they would feel comfortable about raising rates as soon as next month. PCEPI inflation is only 1.62 as of the latest reading in December. The PCEPI is the Feds preferred inflation measure, as it ignores the volatility inherent in energy and food prices that may obscure the true underlying inflationary trends. I believe rates are too low for the economy, as they are still (negative) -100 bps in real terms ( 0.625 effective rate minus 1.62 inflation). This signals quotemergency mode, quot which the US hasnt been in for seven years. I believe the Fed will take its 2 inflation target seriously and raise rates once its apparent inflation continues to make progress. In terms of Fed-speak on the matter, FOMC asserted that quotmarket-based measures of inflation compensation remain lowquot and that quotsurvey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. quot This provides the indication that unless there is some unexpected rise in inflation over the course of the next month, it is very unlikely that rates will be raised in March. The 18 market-implied chance of a hike is too high, in my personal opinion. The Fed has been careful to make its intentions known ahead of time with quotforward guidancequot and nothing about Wednesdays meeting provided any indication that it would essentially surprise markets with a hike in March. I think some market participants might look at certain forms of non-primary data to reason that a March rate hike is not off the table, such as improved consumer and business sentiment, and positive ISM manufacturing data, but the chances have to genuinely be under 5 at this point in time. Ive also heard the argument that the Fed might be more inclined to hike to have wiggle room in time for the next downturn, but this simply doesnt make sense. The series of rate hikes themselves would have tangible economic consequences that would increase the probability of an economic decline if done too aggressively, especially if inflation and growth remains where they currently stand. Moreover, the length of an expansion itself has little bearing on the likelihood of a decline, and the idea of the Fed hiking under the notion that the sun might be setting would be irrational. The longest business cycle on record (defined as not going two quarters with negative year-over-year GDP growth) was the ten-year expansion running from early 1991 to early 2001. staticseekingalpha. a.ssl. fas. 8095011158.png ( Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis modeled by fred. stlouisfed. org ) However, historical precedent probably doesnt have much meaning in this context. The fact that rates have been below zero in real terms for 8-9 years has the potential to drag out the length of a business cycle longer than what might normally be a 5-7 year period. Since the financial crisis, central banks have operated at a scale and level that has never been seen previously. The current cycle will officially turn eight years old at the beginning of Q3. While it is true that the Fed has been dragging its feet more than what has been necessary, which is bad in the sense that low rates can incentivize the uptake of cheap debt to fuel unsustainable credit expansions, the Fed does not necessarily have to hike because its ostensibly quotfighting the clock. quot Nor do I believe the rationale that the Fed is likely to hike aggressively in 2017 because of fears over recent political criticism. Trump was critical of the Fed on the campaign trail and during the presidential debates. However, it was mostly a political tactic designed to illustrate the notion of a quotfake economy, quot arguing that the recovery out of the recession has been weak and that elevated asset prices have been mostly a consequence of Fed policy rather than tactful fiscal action on the part of Washington politicians. This does not mean that the Fed is likely to hike out of fear that Congress may choose to rework its mandate and governance and consequently strip the institution of a large portion of its power going forward. I dont see any reason why this would be a factor in their decision-making and is borderline conspiratorial. Conclusion Due to the Feds dovish policy bent and lack of transparency on certain policy issues, I believe central bankers will most likely sit back rather than continue to hike when the economy continues to underperform its targeted growth and inflation figures. The big news would lie in the Fed not hiking until after June. Then we could expect a notable run up in gold, emerging markets, potentially US stocks (lower discount rates), and weakness in the dollar, as this would signal that the Fed has tempered its opinion on the relative strength of the US economy. Before June, the proposed action in these three assets would be fairly moderate moves, or basically flushing out the minority opinions of some market participants who believe the Fed will hike before June. Its my interpretation that June is the meeting that the Fed is likely targeting for a rate hike. I believe this is the required time horizon to gain greater insight of where the economy is going as it integrates the effects of the policies of the Trump administration. As of now, the Fed, being dovish, is unlikely to act until it gains greater clarity on trade, corporate and personal income taxes, government spending, and regulatory initiatives. As the Yellen Fed has shown over and over again, it is unlikely to act until it has a very high level of certainty that the economy is healthy enough to absorb the rate increase without adverse consequences. I expect that trend to continue. Disclosure: Iwe have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: I am net-long the US dollar.